Statistics That Matter
There are a lot of details on “statistics that matter” that need to filled in. I hope these show notes are useful.
In the podcast, I mentioned that Pythagoreom formula to calculate winning percentage based on average runs per game. This is really called the “Pythagoreom Expectation” for winning percentage. Click here for some background on this from Baseball Prospectus.
The formula for winning percentage is as follows:
Winning % = (Runs Scored)^2 divided by ((Runs Scored)^2+(Runs Allowed)^2))
This formula is incredibly accurate in projecting winning percentage at all levels of baseball.
At the team level, there are 3 statistics that matter:
Win 3 innings
Have 15 Quality At Bats
Limit Walks + Errors < 6
These are by far the three most important elements of winning baseball and teaching players the right way to play baseball. This is the holy grail of statistics.
Winning 3 innings teaches players to compete relentlessly, inning by inning, at bat by at bat and pitch by pitch. It is really hard to win 3 innings in a game.
There are 4 ways to have quality at bats.
1 - Hit the ball hard, regardless of outcome. All line drives are hard hits. Hard hits also include hard hit groundballs and flyballs that force outfielders to retreat on the ball.
2 - Draw a walk
3 - Execute - sacrifice, advance the runner to 3rd, get a run home with less that 2 outs, hit & runs, squeeze, etc..
4 - Any at bat that consumes 6 or more pitches is a quality at bat - regardless of outcome.
A quality at bat is worth between .4 and .5 runs. Using the Pythagoreom Expectation, if you want to increase your winning percentage from 50% to 67%, you need to score 1 more run per game. This means your team needs to produce just 2-3 more quality at bats per game. Now, that is something that players can focus on and control - IF they understand what a quality at bat is.
Finally, walks + errors are the defensive mirror image to quality at bats. When you walk batters and allow runners to reach base on errors, then you are giving away outs. Any time you give away an out - with a walk or an error - on average you cost your team .4-.5 runs.
So, if you want to reduce runs allowed by one run per game. Then, you need to reduce walks + errors by 2-3.
Those are the statistics that matter for the overall team. This is how you can teach baseball and win games at the same time.
For individual players, the statistics that matter focus on things that are more within the players control.
Here is what I use:
On-base percentage - this the only conventional measure that I care about. You need to get on base in order to score runs. A good target in youth baseball is >450.
Quality At Bats - this was explained above. The target should be >60% quality at bats, with at least 40% coming from hard hit balls. These numbers are hard to achieve. Most players will be at 50% and 30% respectively.
Walk:Strikeout Ratio - this is the only measure on pitch selection that I have found that can be used effectively in youth baseball (this is because there is no record of pitch location). If a player has good pitch selection, he should be swinging at strikes and taking balls. A player without good pitch selection takes strikes and swings at balls. I want players to walk 1.5x more than they strikeout. Strikeouts are OK, as long as the hitter is aggressively swinging at good pitches and laying off bad pitches. You’ll notice that players that are struggling will be striking out more than they walk. This is a pitch selection problem.
Runs Created is the ultimate measure of hitting production. It is a complicated formula that takes into account the relative value of different at bat outcomes. Click here and click here if you are interested in the background and details of how this formula is applied in professional baseball. If you want to use outcome based performance measures, then throw batting average out the window and use Runs Created.
Here are some articles on Runs Created - Article 1 and Article 2.
Over the years, I have made some adjustments to the Runs Created formula for youth baseball. Here is my version of the formula, based on a 6-7 inning game.
RC =((Hits+Walks)*(Total Bases + ROE) + .26(Walks + ROE) + .52*SAC)/PA
RC/6 innings = RC / ((PA-BB-ROE-H)*18)
RC/7 innings = RC / ((PA-BB-ROE-H)*21)
ROE = reach on error (in mlb, the hitter is not given credit for ROE. In youth baseball, a lot of errors are created by hard hit balls and hustling runners. So, hitters should get credit for ROE)
Walks = includes walks and HBP
PA = plate appearances
Again, Quality at Bats are by far the most important stat to use for youth players. If you must use a outcome based measure than use On-Base % and Runs Created. They are much more meaningful than batting average.
For pitchers, the statistics that matter are:
% Strikes - because we want pitchers to keep the game moving and force the other team to swing the bat.
Pitches per inning (3 outs) = because we want our pitchers to be efficient and protect their arms
Opposing team On-Base % - Calculated as (walks + hits)/batters faced
Runs Allowed per batter faced - what percentage of batters that the pitcher faces end up crossing the plate. This is a lot more meaningful that ERA for youth pitchers.
At the more advanced level, the following measures are important:
% First Pitch Strikes
% of batters that are on base or out in 3 pitches
% Offspeed strikes
Here are the target measures for the statistics that matter:
For hitters:
Good at bat %, Target >60%
OB % > .500
Walk:Strikeout Ratio >1.0
For pitchers:
% Strikes >65%
Pitches per inning <15
Runs Allowed per Batter Faces >.200
Opposing Team On-Base % >.350
First pitch strikes >67%
On or out in 3 pitches > 50%
Offspeed Strikes > 50%
Mental Selection Characteristics of MLB First Round Draft ChoicesMental Selection Characteristics of MLB First Round Draft Choices
by Geoff Miller
WinningMind.com
Predicting success of Major League Baseball draft prospects is a difficult task. A multitude of factors
must be considered by baseball organizations who pore over scouting reports, stat sheets, speed gun
readings and stopwatch times to find that crucial piece of information that can be used to find future
stars. Physical, mental and social factors contribute mightily to which players live up to their
potential.
The following is a review of the attentional and interpersonal characteristics of players selected in the
First Round of Major League Baseball’s First Year Player Draft.
Assessment of Draft Potentials:
Winning Mind, LLC uses TAIS (The Attentional and Interpersonal Style inventory) to directly measure
concentration, distractibility, decision-making, risk taking as well as general personality variables
like confidence, competitiveness, extroversion/introversion and communication style. TAIS has been
used with Olympic and professional athletes, Navy SEALs, the US Army Special Forces, and Fortune
500 executives. It has even been used to distinguish between multiple and single Olympic medal
winners.
Player Samples:
Data has been collected on potential draft selections from December 2000 to June 2002. Prospects
were given a paper and pencil version of TAIS and asked to complete the inventory with the purpose
of providing a mental performance evaluation. Hundreds of high school, junior college, and
collegiate players were evaluated over that time period and twenty-six were eventually selected by a
Major League team in the First Round of the 2001 or 2002 MLB First Year Player Draft (their average
age was 18.80 years). We examined the TAIS profile data on this group of First Round Picks and
compared it to a randomly selected group of thirty picks who were evaluated and selected later than
the First Round in those drafts. The average round in which these players were selected was 8.87 and
the second group’s average age was 18.96.
A Blueprint for your Scouting/Player Development Process:
We have constructed a composite profile for the typical MLB First Round Pick. This composite
becomes a benchmark that may be used to measure future baseball talent scientifically. The data has
value in three different ways:
1. Compare top physically talented prospects against the MLB First Round Pick group to confirm
their mental toughness characteristics. Red flag prospects who have physical tools, but
don’t have the mental tools to make an impact at the Major League level.
2. Compare lesser physical talent against the group to find out which players have the
potential, based on mental makeup, to develop into Major League talent.
3. Pinpoint developmental targets for all prospects. TAIS profile data acts as a roadmap that
shows how athletes can improve performance. We can tell where players will make
concentration mistakes, how they will respond to coaches and staff, what their work habits
may be like, and how they will perform under pressure.
Characteristics of MLB First Round Picks:
Overall, the typical MLB First Round pick exhibits greater mental and emotional control and makes
better transitions than the average MLB prospect. The First Rounder makes fewer concentration
mistakes, makes quicker decisions, is more physically competitive, plays by the book and by the
rules more often, and uses a combination of awareness, analysis, and action to his advantage.
Attentional Balance:
Everyone has a dominant attentional style (Awareness, Analysis, or Action) much like having a
favorite TV channel for viewing the world. That dominant style is the place we feel most comfortable
and the channel we “tune to” most often when we feel pressure. The dominant attentional style for
most elite athletes is Action, the traditional narrow focus that we associate with blocking out 50,000
screaming fans and executing physical skills. It’s also the quality used by athletes who are the first
ones in the clubhouse and the last ones to leave. People with a higher Action orientation are more
likely to take extra ground balls, show up for early hitting, engage in more rigorous conditioning,
because they have a need to roll up their sleeves and get things done.
MLB First Round Draft Picks reported that their dominant style was Action and that their least
preferred was Analysis. Great athletes don’t have a lot of time to engage in complex problem solving
and they are naturally less likely to be caught in their heads. However, the First Rounder group is
more attentionally balanced while players drafted later favor the Action channel more prominently.
Under pressure, the typical prospect is likely to overuse his ability to focus even if the situation calls
for awareness or analysis. In a pressure situation, the balance shown by First Rounders may help
them avoid “tunnel vision,” the downside of being narrowly focused, by staying aware of their
surroundings and thinking more clearly on the fly (i.e. Derek Jeter’s miracle relay against Oakland in
2001 ALDS).
Concentration Errors:
First Rounders make fewer mental mistakes than average prospects. There are three common types
of concentration errors. The first two are made when players get distracted by sights and sounds
around them or by thoughts in their heads. The third kind of error takes place when emotions get the
best of them and keep them from paying attention to what’s most important.
First round picks are least likely to commit concentration errors that are generated by too much
thinking. Any time an athlete is “in his head” thinking when he should be performing, he is internally
distracted. Bill Buckner’s infamous error in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series may have been the
worst concentration mistake ever. Buckner was obviously thinking about his steps to the bag before
he looked the ball into his glove. Athletes can also commit thinking errors by overanalyzing problems
that have simple solutions. If you’ve heard the term “paralysis by analysis”, you are familiar with this
kind of mental mistake. This is a common problem with well-rounded athletes who have strong
academic backgrounds.
Mistakes caused by paying too much attention to the environment are also rare in First Rounders.
Examples of these errors include hitters seeing infielders shifting or paying attention to extensive
mechanical movements by a pitcher (ie. Nomo’s windup) instead of focusing on the pitcher’s release
point. When a pitcher gets rattled by an opposing bench or when he loses a batter because he has
been too engrossed in holding a baserunner close, he has made a concentration error in his
environment.
The most common concentration mistake made by First Round Picks occurs when they become overly
fixated on one subject to the point of fixation. When this occurs, it becomes impossible to switch
attention between external and internal channels. Such a loss in flexibility is most often associated
with an emotion, usually anger or fear. For example, a pitcher gives up a home run and gets angry at
himself or begins to worry about his place in the starting rotation. The inability to control emotions
makes it more likely that his mistake will snowball into more mistakes. The ballplayer who makes an
error in the field after striking out at the plate may be experiencing the same problem. While reduced
flexibility errors are more rare in First Round Picks than in the average prospect, they remain the most
likely lapses your top picks will make and they should be identified as targets for improvement.
Decision-Making Style:
There is a dramatic difference between MLB First Round picks and average prospects in their
decision-making styles. Decisions can be evaluated in terms of two primary dimensions: speed and
accuracy, with low scores indicating speed and high scores tending toward accuracy. First Round
draft choices tend to favor speed over accuracy. Their lower scores tell us that they make faster
decisions than their peers. High scores on the Decision-Making Style scale indicate that athletes
need to have as much information as possible before committing to action. This is a common
symptom for elite golfers, whose collective perfectionism has them reading greens over and over to
ensure that they plan out a precise putting line. Pitchers who get caught in this frame of mind are
accused of “aiming the ball” or trying to be too fine. Athletes who report high scores on this scale
may demonstrate hesitancy when placed in fast-action situations. This would certainly have
implications for hitters, who have just tenths of a second to decide whether to swing at or take a
pitch. In the field, low scorers would get better jumps on balls and move into position more quickly.
Throughout the course of development, it is this ability to commit to quick decisions that aids First
Round Picks in their transitions from high school or college ball to professional competition and
determines their staying power in the Majors. People with perfectionistic tendencies don’t respond
as well to failure because they obsess over their mistakes which undermines confidence in future
endeavors.
Orientation Towards Rules & Risk:
This scale measures impulsiveness versus conformity. Lower scores indicate rule bound people and
higher scores are associated with persons who march to the beat of their own drummers. High
scorers exhibit creative, outside-the-box thinking, but can get in trouble because their willingness to
take risks defies societal standards (and sometimes laws of gravity!). Low scorers are more
conservative, but can become rigid in thought under pressure. First Round Picks are more
conservative than typical prospects and are more likely to exhibit “by the book” behavior when
placed in pressure situations. You are more likely to see First Round picks taking pitches outside the
strike zone and laying off “pitcher’s pitches” early in the count than prospects with more risk-taking
tendencies.
Confidence/ Leadership Style/ Competitiveness:
Confidence plays a critical role in performance situations. The more confidence a player has in
himself and his abilities, the easier it will be to stay focused on the right channel under pressure.
This is most important after a mistake has been made. All of your prospects are going to make
physical and mental errors as they make transitions to professional baseball. Confident players are
able to quickly recover from their mistakes and regain focus. Players without this confidence are
prone to repeated concentration mistakes and choking. The First Round picks we studied are a highly
confident group, more so even than world class athletes in other sports.
First Round picks are hands-on leaders who relish the opportunity to take charge. This characteristic
is needed for athletes to step up when called upon, but it can be tough to manage 25 players who all
have high needs for control. The typical first rounder will flourish on his own and will be able to
maintain his own training regiment without much supervision. Development targets should be aimed
at helping top prospects understand how to use their abilities to lead to maintain team chemistry.
Physical Competitiveness measures a person’s willingness to engage in physically demanding tasks.
High scorers play to win and maintain high standards of physical fitness. First Round picks have a
great desire to compete physically, even more so than the average baseball prospect. You can
expect First Round picks to keep score in non-competitive situations and to push themselves with
their own competitive standards, rather than simply on commonly accepted ones.
Summary:
At the moment of truth, elite performers must be able to maintain focus, control emotions, and
communicate effectively with teammates. MLB First Round Picks are less likely to make concentration
errors and more likely to exhibit mental and emotional control than the average baseball prospect.
Key characteristics of First Rounders include a reliance on Action, a healthy balance of all three
Attentional channels, a lower likelihood of making concentration mistakes, quick decision-making
skills, less risky behavior, and a high degree of Confidence, Leadership, and Physical
Competitiveness.
The true test of this data, and of the prospects themselves, will be to track the progress of drafted
players and see which ones do make an impact at the Major League level. We plan to continue this
research by keeping internal records of the success of the players sampled to this point and in future
data collection as well.
About Winning Mind:
Winning Mind, LLC (WM) has developed its reputation working with elite level performers in sport,
business and the military. All WM service consultants have advanced degrees and significant
experience working with clients on the cutting edge of performance requirements. WM has taken a
leadership role in the identification and measurement of highly specific concentration and
communication skills?skills that ultimately determine the difference between success and failure,
between winning and losing.
Winning Mind places a heavy emphasis on the ethical uses of its technology. WM has provided
selection, training and teambuilding services to Olympic and professional athletes, Military Special
Operations Units and Fortune 500 companies.
The Winning Mind process for providing selection information is to deliver information about each
player’s mental makeup that can be used to determine an appropriate fit for the organization.
Evaluation does not take a “thumbs up or thumbs down” approach. TAIS data is best employed as
part of a comprehensive selection and development program or as a key consideration when physical
talent and athlete motivation are equal between a number of candidates.
For More information Contact Geoff Miller at Winning Mind, LLC
